The Aftermath of Raila's Death.

On the 15th of October, the legendary opposition leader, Raila Amolo Odinga, a figure of almost cult-like status, breathed his last while seeking treatment in India. The news of his demise was so devastating it left the nation wondering if the Enigma was truly gone.

The official announcement of his death was followed by murmurs about the future of Kenyan politics and its potential casualties. Even in his absence, the central question remains: who inherits his eight million-plus votes, and how? This was the political empire he built through sweat and blood, meted out by his oppressors over four decades. An empire forged by sacrifice, resilience, courage, grit, and forgiveness.

Raila was the immortal of Kenyan politics, an anomaly that confounded even professors of political science. How could someone lose elections five times, yet emerge stronger from each defeat, to the extent of compelling the sitting president to bow to pressure and engage him?

After Raila, Kenya may struggle to see another truly national political leader—a figure beloved across all eight provinces. His death signals the potential re-emergence of regionalism, as each province realigns behind its own tribal kingpin. As Karl Marx noted, politics is a game of ideas, and interests are the prize. We are likely to see political sell-outs, as the one individual who masterfully amalgamated personal interests with national interests is no longer there. The Raila transition will hurt many, and only the strong will survive.

The political class mourned him, each for their own reasons. Some were devastated that the coat they had hung on was suddenly gone, while the more ambitious were secretly calculating their next moves. The overarching question for all was: what happens after Raila?

In Nairobi, plans were already being drawn up to punish the "arrogant" Governor Sakaja, whose political survival had relied on Raila's support. His impeachment now looms, and he may not survive this time.

The broad-based brigade has been left hanging by a thread, as the other half of their political deal no longer exists. Their future is uncertain; with Raila gone, their only plan has vanished. For figures like the Cabinet Secretary for Blue Economy and Mining, Hassan Joho, options are now limited. His shield has been shattered. If he decides to take over the ODM party leadership and steer it toward the top seat in 2027, he must be prepared to face legal challenges known only to him. His safest bet may be to stick closely with the president.

On the other side are the party's "Young Turks," led by Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino. For them, this is an opportunity to take up the Enigma's mantle. However, Babu Owino's first challenge is to convince the Luo Nation that he is Luo by blood and mannerisms before they will bow to him. He will face competition from established Luo leaders like Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, and others such as Wandayi and Sam Atandi, who must now choose between serving the people and pursuing their own ambitions. Hon. Peter Kaluma, I pity you , Junet Mohammed, your goose is cooked.

In the coming weeks, we are likely to witness several splinter groups form within ODM. Only the strong will survive the incoming ordeal. Leaders will have to either go hard or go home, as the unifying "Tosha" slogan is silent. The next election may be the first where people are elected on merit rather than party affiliation.

The incoming Kasipul by-election will be the first test of ODM's strength without its patriarch. Many are waiting to see what strategy the party deploys to ensure its candidate wins.

When clouds gather, the weather changes. The death of Raila signals a major shift in both party and national politics. Even those in Mt. Kenya, who were elected primarily for their skill in abusing Raila, now find themselves under siege.

Finally, all eyes are on the president to see if he truly means well for the country, now that the people's protector is no more.